Quantifying Model Output Uncertainty Due to Spatial Variability of Rainfall'

Traditionally in the application of hydrologic/water quality (H/WQ) models, rainfall is assumed to be spatially homogeneous and is considered not to contribute to output uncertainty. The objective of this study was to assess the uncertainty induced in model outputs solely due to rainfall spatial variability. The study was conducted using the AGNPS model and the rainfall pattern captured by a network of 17 rain gauges. For each rainfall event, the model was run using the rainfall captured by each rain gauge, one at a time, under the assumption of rainfall spatial homogeneity. A large uncertainty in the modeled outputs resulted from the rainfall spatial variability. The uncertainty in the modeled outputs exceeded the input rainfall uncertainty. Results of this study indicate that spatial variability of rainfall should be captured and used in H/WQ models in order to accurately assess the release and transport of pollutants. A large uncertainty in the model outputs can be expected if this rainfall property is not taken into account. (KEY TERMS: agricultural hydrology; water quality; modeling; output uncertainty; spatial variability; AGNPS.)